Will We Have Robots In The Future – With the technological transition from autonomous vehicles to logically autonomous robots, humanoid robots may soon become a reality in our daily lives.
Few subjects have captured the popular imagination like the possibilities of robots. Over the years, they have been the predictions of the future of the country or cast in Hollywood movies as existential threats to humanity.
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Will We Have Robots In The Future
But thanks to significant technological advances, falling costs and a better understanding of the role it can play in the factory of the future, robotics has now left where it started. To transform a number of industrial processes.
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The use of collaborative robots (‘cobots’) as manufacturing or precision tools is now widespread in the industrial world. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) mean that we are already seeing many digital processes carried out by robots. And thanks to the autonomous vehicle (AV), many can imagine a time in the near future when a robotic (driverless) car will drive us to work.
But an important frontier that remains to be overcome is the adoption and acceptance of humanoid robots. Designed to look and act like humans, and be able to interact with human devices and environments, humanoid robots have so far struggled to make it beyond the concept stage.
While small ground-based robots can perform simple tasks like vacuuming, sophisticated human intervention in our most intimate spaces is a distant reality. Some researchers believe that this is unlikely to change anytime soon: citing the necessary advances in platform mobility and the complexity of tasks as major obstacles to making a useful home error a reality.
But it is worth remembering that not so long ago few of us would have thought that our car would be rammed into a wall to load it. Now, the rise of the electric vehicle (EV) is not just a giant automotive leap,
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But adopting them is considered a necessary step to advance the global energy transition.
The rapid growth and adoption of game-changing developments such as EVs and AVs provides a test case for the humanoid robot project, both technologically and productively.
Embarking on a new journey in the consumer robot space, Market Futures suggests that a viable time for humanoid mass production has finally arrived.
Research by Goldman Sachs suggests that a $6 billion market for humanoid robots is possible in the next 10 to 15 years.
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First, of course, there is demand from the industrial sector. But among its predictions, Goldman Sachs predicts that humanoids could help meet 2 percent of global demand for aged care by 2035.
Wendy Pan, a machine analyst for research in Japan, agrees that launching a humanoid robot for industrial use makes perfect sense, especially as the product becomes more sophisticated. And as his team discovered in a recent investor report, that may just be the tip of the iceberg.
The report predicts that domestic market demand for humanoid robots will act as a tipping point that will help propel the humanoid product category to a US$3 trillion market by 2050.
Achieving such access in just 28 years was a huge step for industry and society.
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According to Penn, this could mean that in the next thirty years a humanoid robot could be as important to families as the car is today. “The car helped reduce people’s commuting time. I see this goal as humanoid robots: reducing the time people spend on housework, making people’s lives easier and easier .” she says. “I think this is a technology that will change our lives.”
Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk is among the technologists who agree with that sentiment. Speaking at the unveiling of Tesla’s humanoid prototype named Optimus in 2022, Musk predicted that once fit for purpose, the home-based humanoid robot would “fundamentally change civilization.” Go as we know it.
Advances in the EV and AV space — which have driven the affordability, availability and sophistication of sensors, AI chips and batteries — are one of the reasons Tesla completed early prototypes so enthusiastically, according to Penn. This also has a direct impact on Optimus’ expected price of $20,000 per unit (to which he believes the market will respond positively if true) and by paving the way for wider commercialization of humanoids.
Estimated total hardware cost for an early stage humanoid robot is about $40,000. Specifically, $US10,000 for sensors and chips, $US5,000 for inertial measurement units and torque sensors, $US10,000 for servos and motor drives, $US8,000 for precision reducers, batteries and $US2,000 for the battery control system and $ 5,000 for all other parts including physical materials.
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Optimus is one of four major prototypes that research has identified as early human market setters: the other three include Honda’s ASIMO, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, and Xiaomi’s CyberOne.
As for their potential evolution, Penn and the team predict that between now and the mid-2030s, humanoid robots within factories will replace repetitive or dangerous tasks performed by humans. their physical challenges. Then from the late 2030s to the 2050s, households should begin to permeate the demographics, and homes should become the target market that really drives mass production.
So why the possible delay between the entrance of the factory and the home of the humanoids? Simply put, the home is a much more complex and fragile environment.
In a technical sense, engineers will deal with the degree of flexibility for the humanoid to deal with different surfaces, including carpets, tiles, wood and stairs. Not to mention the challenges of small children and pets. Similarly, if robots are to cook, clean and assist in our daily medical work, their ability to assess materials and precisely adjust grip strength will be critical to their adoption.
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For at least the next decade, the real business opportunity for investors looking at humanoid robot projects will mostly be in the supply chain, especially among hardware, AI chip manufacturers and sensor manufacturers.
Also, more attention will be paid to links that are currently missing. “The bottleneck in the production of humanoids is the actors,” says Penn. “They should be the focus of humanoid manufacturers or market investors.”
Over time, as the product becomes more technologically sophisticated, the debate about its mass viability begins. A major obstacle is regulation. Because humanoids are more complex than autonomous vehicles, there are many safety issues, from accident prevention to alignment of responsibilities. Also, their use will require attention to ethical issues, and cyber security risks must be taken seriously.
The next question is practicality. Or, in other words, how useful will the humanoids be, and whether their use case represents the right value for money. Also, since the product is home, it remains to be seen how patient the market will be with the initial flawed version.
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And finally, the profit is estimated. While a winning prototype can be highly profitable, the potential losses before mass production can be difficult for the market to absorb.
Perhaps the most encouraging takeaway from a recent media survey of robot watchers is that widespread predictions that robots will have a negative impact on jobs appear to be receding. “Economists are rethinking their views on robots and jobs,” writes The Economist. Despite predictions that global investment is booming, there is little evidence of unemployment due to automation. Instead, the developed world has more than 30 million vacancies in the OECD. “What is clear at this point is that the era of doom and gloom over automation is well and truly over.”
Recent studies support the notion that automation and job growth will continue to go hand in hand. Harvard University researchers point to a “new perspective” on robots, predicting that “the direct effect of automation may be to increase, not decrease, employment at the company level.”
Penn agrees that while many types of jobs have been replaced by machines in the last two centuries, new categories of work have emerged. “I don’t think people are particularly disadvantaged when it comes to changing jobs,” says Penn. “And in some areas where there is a real job market today, such as health care and the elderly care industry, I think humanoid robots will provide a source of work for those industries.”
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In time, Pan believes that humans and their robot partners will live happily together. As the relationship grows, she predicts that the anthropoids will lose their fear. “It’s just technology that helps people achieve better things.”
This article was written with Capital Research developed by Wendy Penn and Damian Thong in Tokyo. Users can access relevant research reports in the Insights Portal. Get 30% on your first 2 months Unlimited Monthly. Start your subscription from £35.99 £24.99. New T&C subscribers only
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