How Will Transportation Change In The Future – By 2050, the ways we get from point A to point B will be automated, thanks to machine learning, superfast transit and suborbital spaceflight.
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- 1 How Will Transportation Change In The Future
- 2 Journey To A Cleaner Future: Tackling The Environmental Impact Of Cars And Air Travel
- 3 Covid 19 Is ‘killing Transit.’ Will It Permanently Change How We Get Around?
How Will Transportation Change In The Future
Welcome to our “Life 2050” series! In the previous installment, we looked at how change and environmental issues affect the future of war, economy, education, daily life and space exploration (in two installments). Today, we see how people get from A to B in the middle of the century, be it across town, from one city to another, or across a continent.
Another area at risk of major revolution in the coming decades is transportation. This revolution is taking place in many ways due to the adoption of autonomous vehicles, widespread adoption of electric vehicles, the rise of renewable energy sources and the emergence of commerce. space flight .
Between now and 2050, these technologies and trends will accelerate and lead to the creation of new transportation infrastructures, different from what we know today. Overall, the following factors contribute to this revolution:
Of course, tomorrow’s infrastructure will be built on existing transport networks which include urban centers with automated traffic control systems, existing public transport networks including road networks, motorways and railway systems connecting major urban centers and airports serving flights between countries and continents.
The problems with this existing infrastructure are its dependence on fossil fuels and its aging and obsolescence. According to a 2020 analysis by the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, the U.S. About 231,000 bridges (more than 1/3) in
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Similarly, a 2017 report published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) ranked 137 countries based on their economic competitiveness. According to the report, developed countries like France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Spain, US and UK are facing problems due to infrastructure degradation. In particular, the condition of roads and bridges is a major concern
However, as the growing problem of climate change complicates rather than simply fixing their aging infrastructure, developed nations must make any upgrades to their transportation networks with sustainability in mind. As the old saying goes, “necessity is the mother of invention”.
In addition to increasing demand for food, water, and utilities (such as electricity), this increase in transportation increases air pollution. According to a 2012 report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – “Environmental Outlook 2050” – greenhouse gas emissions, particulate matter and ground-level ozone will increase significantly by 2050.
The number of premature deaths due to air pollution could double to 3.6 million deaths per year (mainly in China and India). These figures become particularly alarming when we consider the younger generation, who experience high levels of mortality as a result.
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According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 1.8 billion children worldwide (93%) breathe toxic air every day, resulting in 600,000 deaths in 2016. This problem is exacerbated as urbanization is expected to occur in developing countries. There are few facilities for medical care and energy is still generated from non-renewable sources
In short, by 2050, urban air pollution is poised to become the leading environmental cause of death—infectious diseases, dirty water, lack of sanitation, and lack of medical care. Addressing urban transport is part of the global effort to combat climate change as well as a public health issue.
The nature of urban transport will change dramatically between 2021 and 2050, in line with the changing nature of cities, as urban populations grow, outpacing rural populations, creating a two-fold challenge as more people live in cities. Demand for food, shelter, education and basic services.
Expanding cities mean less agricultural land and green space to grow food, not to mention greater burdens on dwindling freshwater supplies. However, there is another side to this situation, as cities are centers of innovation and development, meaning that large urban populations can create new solutions for sustainable living.
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According to a 2019 report compiled by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs – “World Population Prospects 2019” – the world population is expected to reach 9.74 billion by mid-century. That means over 2 billion people in thirty years, beyond the population, there is also the question of where they will live.
Today, about 56% of the world’s population lives in urban centers rather than rural areas, which serve about 4.4 billion people. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the global urban population is projected to increase to 6.6 billion by 2050, representing approximately 68% of humanity.
As such, urban growth means that some cities will overtake them and become ‘megacities’. According to UNDESA, in 1990, there were only 10 megacities in the world, urban centers with a population of 10 million or more. There are 33 megacities in the world today, including Osaka (19 million people) and Tokyo (37 million).
By 2030, the number of megacities is estimated to reach 43, most of which are located in Africa, Asia and South America. The Global Cities Task Force estimates that there will be 50 megacities by 2050, of which only five will be in Western Europe or North America – New York, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Paris.
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One in eight people (12.5%) live in 33 megacities today, while most of the world’s 4.4 billion urban dwellers live in small towns with populations of less than 500,000. By 2050, one in five (20%) of the 6.6 billion urban dwellers will live in one of the world’s 50 megacities.
By 2050, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will reach 62 million units per year, with a global inventory of 700 million EVs. In terms of total sales, EVs account for 56% of the global market, overtaking internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which account for the remaining 44%. This change comes with this change in the nature of the infrastructure
By 2050, charging stations will be more common than petrol stations and will benefit from the increasing use of renewable energy and ‘smart grid’ technology. By 2050, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that 49% of global electricity will come from renewable sources, followed by natural gas (23%), coal (23%) and nuclear power (5%).
This allows charging stations to be built wherever there are distributed electricity arrays. Biofuel stations are also a common feature due to the increase in carbon sequestration jobs implemented in future urban development. These operations are based on the chemical “elimination” of titanium dioxide (TiO²) or biomass (in the case of BECCS) from air.
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In the first, captured carbon is used with water and an electrocatalyst to create ethanol as a biofuel. By combining processed food waste to create biodiesel, older vehicles will be able to refuel at petrol stations, making it much ‘greener’. Coal is used to generate electricity, heat and most biofuels using the BECCS method
So, for many commuters in 2050, charging (or “charging”) a car will be a simple matter of pulling into a charging station in a city or rural area – usually one with a large solar array or wind farm installed. As a park alternative, biofuels can be purchased by transporting urban air pollution to urban gas farms that produce fuel!
Another interesting development is that electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL), short take-off and landing (STOL) and personal aerial vehicle (PAV) concepts will become more common. In an age where traffic is a major concern, residents of big cities can hail taxis not only from the streets but also from rooftops!
Similar to how people hail an Uber, Lyft or traditional taxi on their smartphones, in the near future city dwellers will be able to request air taxis from existing rooftop helipads or small landing zones. As air taxis become more common, “airports” are likely to be built in urban areas.
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Some recent examples of air taxis and PAVs include the Boeing Next Aerospace, Vertical VA-X4, EHang Autonomous Aerial Vehicle (AAV), Zant/Carter PAV, Volocopter Velocity Air Taxi, Lilium Jet, and Personal Air and Ground. Vehicle (PAL-V). By 2050, electric flying taxis will be a common feature of urban life.
Mass transit is expected to make a serious comeback due to city growth, socioeconomic changes, and demographic changes — all of which will force major cities to upgrade their infrastructure or face urban decline. In a report titled “Future of Railways”.
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