How Will Climate Change In The Future

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How Will Climate Change In The Future – Unless we significantly reduce our annual emissions of billions of tons, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to rise. Concentrations are expected to increase:

Many greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for long periods of time. As a result, even if emissions stop, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to rise for hundreds of years. Moreover, if we stabilize our concentrations and the composition of today’s atmosphere remains constant (which requires drastic reductions in current greenhouse gas emissions), surface air temperatures will continue to rise. Because ocean warming takes decades to fully respond to greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean’s response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations and warmer temperatures will impact climate for decades or even hundreds of years.

How Will Climate Change In The Future

How Will Climate Change In The Future

More information about greenhouse gases can be found on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions page and in the Greenhouse Effects section on the Causes of Climate Change page.

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Because it is difficult to predict future emissions and other factors affecting climate, scientists use a variety of scenarios, making different assumptions about future economic, social, technological and environmental conditions.

This figure shows greenhouse gas concentrations through four different emission pathways. The best path predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise in this century. In general, emissions will increase between 2010 and 2020 and then decline. Source: Chart based on data from the Representative Central Path Database (version 2.0.5) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb Click on the image to view a larger version.

Over the last few decades, we have witnessed global warming. Further temperature changes are expected in the future. Climate models predict the following major temperature-related changes.

Changes in global average temperature over three different periods (columns) along four emission pathways (lines). Temperature change compared to the average from 1986-2005. These pathways are from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: RCP2.6 is the very low emissions pathway, RCP4.5 is the medium emissions pathway, RCP6.0 is the medium high emissions pathway, and RCP8.5 is the high emissions pathway ((The total the amount of donations will continue to increase throughout the century.) Source: IPCC, 2013. Finish Click on the image to view a larger version.

How Climate Change Affects Life On Earth

Observations and forecasts of global mean temperature change in four emission pathways. The vertical bars on the right show the probability of temperature increases by the end of the century, while the lines show average forecasts from a range of climate models. The changes concern average values ​​from 1986-2005. Source: IPCC, 2013 Exit, question 12.1, figure 1. Click on the image to view a larger version.

Projected temperature changes in the United States under high (top) and low (bottom) emissions scenarios at mid-century (left) and end of the century (right). The bracket on the thermometer indicates the range of the model’s predictions, although the results may be lower or higher. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Precipitation and storm patterns, including rain and snow, may also change. However, some of these changes are less pronounced than temperature-related changes. Forecasts show that future changes in rainfall and storm patterns will vary by season and region. Some areas may experience less rainfall, others may experience more rainfall, and others may experience minor changes. Heavy rainfall is expected to increase in most areas and storms are expected to move towards the poles. Climate models change rainfall and storms.

How Will Climate Change In The Future

Projected changes in average annual precipitation for the low-emission (left) and high-emission scenarios (right). Rainfall is projected to increase in blue and green areas while decreasing in yellow and brown areas by the end of the century. Source: IPCC, 2013. Finish. Click on the image to view a larger version.

Climate Change Impacts

The maps show future changes in precipitation at the end of this century compared to 1970-1999 under conditions of high emissions. For example, during winter and spring, climate models agree that northern parts of the United States will likely be wetter and southern parts drier. It is uncertain where the transition between the wet and dry zones occurs. The certainty of expected changes is highest in the area marked with a diagonal line. The natural variation in white patch variability is not expected to be greater than expected. Source: United States National Climate Assessment, 2014. Click on image to view larger version.

Arctic sea ice is already retreating. [2] Since the 1970s, the amount of ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased. Temperatures in Alaska and much of the Arctic have risen over the past century. For the latest snow and ice changes, visit the Snow and Ice page in the Index section.

Over the next century, sea ice is expected to continue to decline, glaciers will continue to shrink, ice sheets will continue to shrink, and glaciers will continue to melt. Snow, ice and sleet are likely to change below. These maps show the projected loss of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctica. Map a) shows the average sea ice extent (area covered by sea ice) from 1986 to 2005. Maps b) and c) show climate model simulations of sea ice thickness in February and September under low (b) and high (c) emission scenarios at the end of the 21st century. In the Arctic, there is less snow in February (more blue), and in September there is almost no snow (almost all blue). Projected changes to Antarctic ice are more subtle. Source: IPCC, 2013 Click on the image to view a larger version.

Meltwater flows through the Greenland Ice Sheet Source: NASA Warming is contributing to sea level rise: Sea level expansion is causing glaciers and ice caps, as well as some of the ice in Greenland and Antarctica, to melt or flow into the oceans.

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Since 1870, global sea levels have risen by about 7.5 inches. Projections for future sea level rise vary by region, but global sea levels are expected to rise at a faster rate over the next century than in the past 50 years.

The study estimates that global sea levels will rise another 1-4 feet by 2100, with an uncertainty range of 0.66-6.6 feet.

The effects of thermal expansion, ice sheets and small glaciers on sea level rise have been well studied, but the effects of climate change on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are poorly understood and an area of ​​active research. Changes in ice sheets are expected to raise sea levels by 1.2 to 8 inches by the end of this century.

How Will Climate Change In The Future

Past and projected sea level rise from 1800 to 2100. The orange line on the right shows the currently projected sea level rise by 2100. The wide range (0.66 feet to 6.6 feet) reflects uncertainty about how glaciers and ice sheets will respond to climate change . Source: NCA, 2014. Click on image to view larger version. Regional and local factors influence future relative sea level rise on coastlines around the world. For example, relative sea level rise depends on changes in land elevation, either subsidence or uplift (uplift). Assuming these historic geological forces continue, a 2-foot rise in global sea level by 2100 will result in the following relative sea level rise:[4]

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The relative rise in sea level depends on local currents, winds, changes in salinity and water temperature, as well as the proximity of ice floes.

Ocean acidification adversely affects many marine species, including plankton, molluscs, crustaceans and corals. As ocean acidification increases, the solubility of calcium carbonate decreases. Calcium carbonate is the main building block of shells and skeletons of many marine organisms. If the atmosphere is WHAT

If concentrations continue at current levels, global warming and ocean acidification could slow coral growth by almost 50 percent by 2050.

As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions enter the oceans, the oceans are becoming more acidic. This change is measured on the pH scale, with lower values ​​being more acidic. Since pre-industrial times, the pH of the oceans has dropped by about 0.1 pH unit, which corresponds to about a 30% increase in anemia. As the chart and map above show, ocean pH levels will continue to decline by the end of the century as CO2 concentrations are expected to increase in the foreseeable future. [1] [2] Source: IPCC, 2013, chapter 6. Click on the image to see a larger version.

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[1] USGCRP (2014) Melillo, Jerry M., Therese (TC) Richmond and Gary W. Yohe, 2014 edition: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third Climate Assessment. American Global Change Research Program.

[2] IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: Departure from the Physical Sciences Database. Contribution of the Working Group to the 1st Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report [Paicek, T.F. , D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Knowles, Y. Zia, V. Becks, and P.M. Midgley (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England and New York, New York, USA.

[3] NRC (2011). Climate stabilization targets: emissions, concentrations and decade-long impacts. National Research Council. American Academy Press, Washington, USA.

How Will Climate Change In The Future

[4] USGCRP (2009). Effects of global climate change

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